Will the McDonald's ice cream machine actually work when you get there?

Every McFlurry order is a gamble. Sure, you might walk away with a delicious ice cream treat but anyone who has ordered a cone knows odds are high you might not.

So here at The Action Network, in honor of National Ice Cream Day, we did what we do best: we turned it into odds. Think of it as a sportsbook line for your dessert. Are you in a town where the machine is a safe bet, or one where you're basically gambling every time you order?

We dug into nearly six years of reported machine status across 492 cities and all 50 states (plus DC) to find where getting your cone is a safe bet and where it's a real longshot.

Fun Findings

  • Nationally, the McDonald's ice cream machine was reported down about 10.4% of the time.
  • Cleveland, Tennessee is the broken-machine capital of America, with implied odds of a downed machine of 46.9%, nearly a coin flip on whether you're getting ice cream at all.
  • Albany, Georgia (42.4%) and Gulfport, Mississippi (39.7%) round out the three unluckiest cities in the country.
  • On the other end, Ashland, Kentucky is soft-serve heaven: the machine was down just 2.1% of the time, the most reliable city in the study.
  • Mississippi is the worst state overall (34.0% implied odds of a broken machine), followed by Oklahoma (32.4%) and Alaska (30.5%).
  • Minnesota (11.5%) and Wisconsin (12.7%) have the best statewide odds in the country.

Check your town's odds

Start typing a city and we'll tell you your chances of a working machine.

    Chance it's working
    "Broken" moneyline
    Chance it's DOWN

    The Hall of Shame & Fame

    Where the machine lets you down most

    Ranked by the odds of walking into a broken machine. The moneyline reads like a sportsbook: a bigger positive number means a working machine is the safer bet.

    Top 15 cities where you're most likely to hit a broken machine.
    #City Odds it's down Locations tracked "Broken" line
    The National Map

    Every state, ranked by heartbreak

    Darker means the machine goes down more often. Tap or hover any state to see its odds.

    Reliable · ~11%Risky · ~34%
    Tap a state to see your odds of a working machine.

    Happy National Ice Cream Day. May your barrel be full and your machine be humming.